I did a presentation at “Medievaner 07”, Aker Brygge, Oslo 20. september 2007. My presentation was called “What’s hot, what’s next and why?” (lol).
Connected changes everything
My main point is this: Young people today are connected with so many people through different channels, that disconnecting their network would be almost like cutting off an arm. Their network is bigger than their parents, it’s more diverse, it’s more advanced and most important of all: It’s amazingly fast.
Young people using IM, Facebook, del.icio.us, Flickr etc. find their answers in their networks. If I have a problem, I pose it to my network, and I get answers, links, suggestions and clues back, and the quality is top notch.
If you don’t realize this, you lose. It’s playing a game where you think the other team has 11 players, but it has infact 2 200 players. If you’re not convinced, type “Oyvind says being connected changes the world just as much as rock’n roll did” in your calender – say – 10 years from now.
Also: Chime out in the comments below! I’d love to hear why you think this is wrong, stupid, thoughtful or brilliant. My contact data is to the right if you think this is interesting for your company or organisation.
Here’s my presentation, hosted at slideshare.net. You can download it as a pdf at the page at slideshare.
– Jeg mener de sosiale nettverksamfunnene på internett er den største sosiale og kulturelle endringen i vårt samfunn siden rockens inntog, sier Solstad.
The trick for businesspeople interested in using social networks and for IT departments that need to monitor and manage access to them is to steer clear of the time-wasting stuff while leveraging the collaborative potential.
…and:
Teens and undergrads started the social networking trend; now business professionals and IT pros are coming up to speed. The pitfalls are obvious and mostly avoidable, while the benefits remain largely unexplored by most companies. Curious to know more? Knowledgeable peers are only a few clicks away.
I did a presentation in Tønsberg last week. I’m not going to put up the whole presentation here. But instead I would like to put up a few pictures and links I’ve found the last weeks. First up is Aftenposten (Norwegian) who wrote about a new book by Jesper Bo Jensen called “Future Consumer Tendencies and Shopping Behavior”. Jensen thinks that people in the near future not will use material goods to show their wealth.
Tid: Afkobling, have tiden til sin egen rådighed Opmærksomhed: En luksus at være massemedie-fri – at kunne være fuldt sammen med et andet menneske Rum og plads: Udfoldelse, der hvor ingen andre kommer, væk fra bilkøer, monkey-class, forsimple sin bolig Fred og ro: Fravær af larm og støj Natur og renhed: Ren luft, rent vand, mad uden gift Sikkerhed: Fuldkommen tryghed er en ny luksus – næsten alle steder er risikobetonede
In English (my translation):
Time: Relaxing, to decide over your own time Attention: A luxury to be free from massmedia, to be with another human being 100% Room and space: To be where no one else comes, away from traffic, monkey-class, simplify your home Peace and quiet: No noise Nature: Clean air, fresh water, food without toxics Safety: 100% safety is the new luxury, almost all places involves risk
Have a look at his presentations, where you’ll find lots of interesting statistics on the new luxury, like this graphic called “The new phases of life”:
The new phases of life – Slide by Jesper Bo Jensen
Future homes
The National Association of Home Builders did a study to find out what our houses will be like in 2015. Washington Post reports:
“The formal living space isn’t as important,” said Andy Rosenthal, president of Rosenthal Homes in Potomac. “As a baby boomer, when we grew up, we all had living rooms, but we weren’t allowed in there. Now we don’t want living rooms because we weren’t allowed in there anyway.”
Local builders did agree with the survey’s findings that “green” methods will become more widespread. The builders association predicts that the home of the future will have water conservation devices and energy-efficient appliances, among other features. “The cost of energy is going to continue to rise,” Paul said. “It will encourage essentially green building and efficient building.”
Women rule
I showed this graphic at the presentation, with numbers from Tom Peters (click to enlarge):
It shows that women make all the most important economic decisions in a family. And my point was: Pay attention to your female customers, or you will loose lots of money! I have studied couples shopping tvs and games, records and movies, toys, clothes and kitchen stuff at a local mall, and could easily see that both male and female sales people paid more attention to what the male said, than to the female. Even in Norway, where women are more liberated than any other country in the world. “Dine Penger”, a Norwegian monthly on personal economics, ran this in their September 2007 edition (click to enlarge):
Women rule…
The shopping experience
I also made a point about shops have to understand that experience is becoming more and more important for shoppers. If your shop looks like thrash, well… My example was the highly successful Apple Retail Stores, and also Amoeba Music – which looks very basic, but has an amazing selection and staff that know just about anything about music.
A clips that shows this trend, from Aftenposten again, about BMW’s amazing new store in Germany – BMW Welt:
Picking up your new BMW is almost as important as owning it. BMW makes it a big experience, and people love it.
Expect the unexpected
Finally a Ludwig Wittgenstein qoute, which I got in a paper from one of the fonds I invest in, Skagen Fondene.
Which proves a point in itself: I’m certain I would not have qouted a Skagene newspaper if all they did write about was funds and investments. But when they try to see out of their usual circle, it gets interesting.
Also on the subject of predicting the future: Read the excellent book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. A real eye opener if you think youcan predict everything.
The people who saw my presentation were dead tired after six hours at the golf course. The dinner was waiting, and the room was 40+ degrees Celcius. Not the perfect conditions for a presentation. But I got some nice feedback afterwards, and some angry looks from record and movie executives. 😉
Motion 07 is finished, and what a great conference it was. Great content, great speakers, and lots of interesting people to talk to. Loved it. The conference has got lots of feedback too, and here’s their “sum-it-up” post (in Norwegian).
I did a presentation on “NRK in new media”, and here it is, hosted at slideshare. Watch out for pink underwear.
I have added links to all videos I showed in the presentation. Just click the link and you’ll get the video from youtube. Also, all pictures I have used under a CC-licence are linked to. Click the lower left corner. Pictures without a link are my own, like the tiger, the luggage tag and the ladybug. Feel free to ask questions in the comments field below, in English or Norwegian.
Some relevant links
Here are some relevant links to things covered during my presentation and in the conference.
Some the questions I got after the presentation and later in the conference.
Q: Do you think traditional TV is in trouble?
A: I think people will use the net more and more and traditional tv will be less important in the future than it is now. Statistics show that young people spend less time watching tv than ever. And I think the numbers are lying too. Because if you watch them while they are watching tv, they aren’t really watching most of the time. The tv is just on as a companion. The TV is on, they chat, SMS, surf and listen to music. And the web is the number one source for information and entertainment, not the tv.
TV will not die. Just as radio didn’t die when tv came, and movies didn’t die when video recorders came.
Q: How are people going to make money, if people think content should be free?
A: If you look at slide 63 & 64 on my presentation, you’ll see that NRK got more viewers on the last episode of “Kodenavn: Hunter” when we gave away the last episode in HD on the web. But NRK didn’t give away all episodes. I think a combination of free and paid is the right thing to do. The artist Prince “gave” away millions of copies of his latest album with an English newspaper some weeks ago. Well, he got paid quite a bit, but probably not as much a he would have earned if people had to buy the album. Maybe as much as 2.3 million copies were included with the paper, and the music shops in Great Britain did not like this at all:
“It is an insult to all those record stores who have supported Prince throughout his career. It is yet another example of the damaging covermount culture which is destroying any perception of value around recorded music.”
The newspaper responded this way:
“They are living in the old days and haven’t developed their businesses sufficiently. We can enhance their business. They are being incredibly insular and need to move their business on.”
Exactly. Find new models to gain buzz and PR. Prince gave away something for free, got lots of PR and sold out lots of concerts in Great Britain. The record shops need to adapt their business to the new world.
Q: We’re a small classic orchestra. How do we get our stuff on the web?
A: Apart from a website (obviously), you should try broadcasting yourself using new tools for live video on the web. And put of clips on sites like YouTube and Brightcove for your fans. Taking care of your fans is always number one for musicians. Rock band Marillion put the names of 17 000 (!) fans on a CD, just to say “Thank you for your support!”.
Marbles was released in 2004 with a 2-CD version that is only available at Marillion’s website – kind of a ‘thank-you’ gesture to the 17,000+ fans who pre-ordered it, and as even a further thanks to the fans, their names were credited in the sleeve notes (this ‘thank you’ to the fans also occurred with the previous album, Anoraknophobia). The band released the singles You’re Gone and Don’t Hurt Yourself, both of which reached the UK Chart in the Top 10 and Top 20 respectively, thanks again to the fans. Following this, they released a download-only single, The Damage (live), recorded at the band’s sell-out gig at the London Astoria. It was the highest new entry in the new UK download chart at number 2.
Get yourself a website. Let people comment on things, and update it regularly. Get an account on YouTube and start posting some of your stuff there. MySpace has been huge for some bands, but it’s a very strange system. It’s hard to make things look the way you want.
Have a look at the “Eventcasting” article (in Norwegian) at NRKbeta. It shows some ways you can broadcast live from the web for free. Maybe you could have lots of fans, they just don’t live where you do! Some of the tools mentioned:
Q: What software do you use for your presentations?
A:Apple’s Keynote ’08, which is part of the iWork ’08 software package. And a simple principle: KISS.
Q: Heard any great electronica lately?
A: Yes, I have! I always find great stuff at Amie Street. In their “Buzz” section – Electronica you’ll find what’s hot at Amie Street right now. Amie Street has a cool way of shopping music. When tracks are put on the site, they are free. Yes, free. Then the price go up when people buy it. If it’s popular, that price gets all the way up to 98 cents. If not, well – then it stays free or cheap. So if you want to search the new tracks, you could find lots of great electronice – for free – in the Electronica – latest section where most songs are free or just a few cents.
If you download one of these – and like it – you can recommend it to others. When the price goes up, you get the difference. Example: You buy a song for 3 cents. You like it, and recommend it on Amie Street. It’s popular so it goes up to 78 cents. You earn 75 cents which can buy you more great tracks. Clever?
Also: Have a look at Garageband.com, where they put up the most popular electronica track downloaded every day. Some crap but also some really good ones!
Forgot anything?
I know there was some more questions after the presentation. I you can’t find yours here – or have another one – feel free to use the comments below! Or contact me in other ways. All mye details to the right here.
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. A real eye opener if you think youcan predict everything. 
